CHINA's export growth unexpectedly accelerated in September, as still solid global demand offset some of the pressures on factories from power shortages, supply bottlenecks and a resurgence of domestic Covid-19 cases.
The world's second-largest economy?™s outbound shipments in September jumped 28.1 per cent from a year earlier, up from a 25.6 per cent gain in August. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast growth would ease to 21 per cent.
"Exports have continued to outperform and accelerate, even after omitting the impact of base effects," said Erin Xin, Greater China economist at HSBC, adding that earlier shipments of holiday consumer products in light of global supply chain disruptions may be behind the continued strength in exports.
Power shortages caused by a transition to clean energy, strong industrial demand, and high commodity prices have halted production at numerous factories including many supplying firms such as Apple and Tesla since late September.
Factories in eastern provinces of Guangdong and Zhejiang, both major export powerhouses, have been asked to stagger their production throughout the week, and many owners are complaining about the chaos the curbs have brought to work schedules.
Previously, factories could operate at night but now the ban is 24 hours on days of rationing, said King Lau, who helps manage a metal-coating factory in the export city of Dongguan. The factory was asked to stop using government electricity on three working days this week.
Reuters latest poll shows analysts have lowered their expectations for China's full-year growth to 8.2 per cent from 8.6 per cent seen in July, with a further slowdown to 5.5 per cent in 2022. On a quarterly basis, growth in the third quarter might have cooled to just 0.5 per cent from 1.3 per cent in April-June.
But analysts said concerns over high debt levels and property bubble risks may delay any further central bank policy easing into next year.
China's September imports rose 17.6 per cent, lagging an expected 20 per cent gain in a Reuters poll and 33.1 per cent growth the previous month.
"The breakdown showed a broad-based decline across all good types, though it was particularly pronounced for inbound shipments of semiconductors," said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics.
"Lower import volumes of industrial metals add to evidence that environmental curbs and cooling construction activity are weighing on heavy industry."
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