THE director of business development and executive vice president of DNV GL,
Jan Olaf Probst, has said that the current ecosystem in the container
shipping market is favourable to shipyards and financiers with lines
expected to grow organically, with no oversupply of tonnage.
Speaking recently at the DNV GL Bulker
& Container Forum held in Hong Kong as part of the Hong Kong
Maritime Week 2019, Mr Probst suggested that most big liner companies
will have to grow organically by ordering newbuildings which is good
news for tonnage providers, financing houses and shipyards.
He explained that since eight of the top 10 global liner companies by
tonnage capacity (including owned, chartered tonnage and orderbook) are
already members of existing alliances plus one (HMM) expected to join
soon, it is unlikely for any of them to acquire members from another
alliance without breaching anti-trust regulations. He added that the top
five global liner companies by tonnage capacity hold a market share of
65 per cent and the top ten liner companies hold a market share of 82
per cent.
Mr Probst dismissed the idea that there is oversupply of vessels in the
containership market. He explained that there has been a trend of 4 to 5
per cent growth in global containerised trading volume except in the
year of 2009 while fleet expansion has been roughly 3 to 4 per cent over
the longer period which means tonnage growth has been slower than the
increase in cargo volume. According to Mr Probst, 200 million boxes were
shipped in 2018.
He pointed out that global container fleet has increased by 262 ships or
5.77 million TEU between the end of 2012 and the end of 2018, which
translates to an average size 22,000 TEU for those newbuildings.
Therefore he suggested that a larger but reduced number of vessels would
be the trend for major liners.
Meanwhile, the number of containership newbuilding contracts stands at
around 50 in 2019 year-to-date, compared to around 180 contracts in 2018
FY, according to Mr Probst. He expects to see a large increase in
number of ship demolition in 2020 after witnessing the lowest scrapping
rate since decades in 2018 and a rather low number in 2019.
Mr Probst expects newbuilding contracting in the next two years to be of
mainly four types of vessel sizes: 22,000 TEU, around 15,000 TEU,
around 10,000 TEU and under 4,000 TEU. He explained that while the Far
East-Europe trade are being handled by the ultra large vessels,
intra-Asia trade being dominated by 4,000 TEU ships, the long
transpacific routes will be for the 10,000 TEU to 15,000 TEU vessels
which can go through the Panama Channel, reports Seatrade Maritime News,
Colchester, UK.
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