AIR cargo airline and logistics executives have written off the traditional peak season bump in shipping business as the global economy decelerates, leaving them to speculate whether prospects will improve sometime in 2023.
The growing pessimism, following 18 months of record-setting volumes and revenues, was underscored by International Air Transport Association data last week showing a 10.7 per cent decrease in cargo demand in September compared to the prior year.
Continued contraction in export activity, the war in Ukraine, labour shortages and inflation contributed to mid-double-digit declines in demand for Asia-Pacific, European and Middle Eastern carriers, reports New York's FreightWaves.
Although IATA's data is a lagging indicator, it underscores the worsening trend line since March. The year-over-year (y/y) volume decline was 6.7 per cent in June and 8.3 per cent in August.
Xenata, a market intelligence firm with more current data than IATA, recently reported October air cargo demand fell 8 per cent year on year. And early indications from other sources suggest shipment performance in November so far is worsening.
"The slide was more like a cliff. It happened fast once it pulled back" in September, Amerijet CEO Tim Strauss said during an interview in his office at Miami International Airport. "I'm not sure what precipitated that exact timing, but it happened everywhere."
Some of the largest carriers in the world, not including express carriers, have cut back as many as 100 flights per month coming out of Asia to the US, he added.
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