THE projected increase in ammonia use as both a shipping fuel and cargo will require a more robust regulatory and safety framework, according to safety and environmental experts.

A new study warned that spills of ammonia as a shipping fuel could negatively impact certain habitats and species and urged the industry to rapidly develop mitigation and spill management measures in line with planned increase usage.

The report, published by Environmental Defense Fund, Lloyd's Register and Ricardo, follows two weeks of climate negotiations in which ammonia’s central role in shipping’s future was a high-profile topic of discussion among governments and industry.

According to the International Energy Agency’s annual forecast published last month, ammonia could potentially meet 45% of demand for shipping fuel by 2050.

Ammonia is also simultaneously projected to become a major cargo.

Green ammonia is slowly becoming economically viable — the recent price hikes for natural gas, and falls in electrolyser, wind and solar costs, mean that in the European Union imported green ammonia could be cheaper than domestic grey ammonia production, around a decade earlier than thought likely just two years ago.

That means the shipping sector will need to increase the number of ammonia carriers, accelerating to construction of around 20 large vessels a year in the latter half of the decade. This represents a scale-up of the recent rate of five vessels a year.

But amid the increasingly bullish projections, there are those sounding early warnings of caution regarding the safety framework yet to be discussed in detail.

Speaking at the COP27 climate summit, MAN Energy Solutions chief executive Uwe Lauber said the tests on ammonia engines were “looking positive” but cautioned there would be more than just technology hurdles to overcome before the engines could be used. “I have my doubts that you want to sail on a ship with an ammonia engine at the moment because it's not a proven design,” he said.

While the maritime industry has prior experience with ammonia transported in gas carriers and used as refrigerant, the introduction of ammonia as a shipping fuel creates new challenges related to safe bunkering, storage, supply and consumption for different ship types.

“The potential toxicity of ammonia cannot be ignored,” warned the EDF study. “Without mitigation measures and solid spill management practices, an ammonia fuel spill could have negative impacts on aquatic environments. Therefore, a robust regulatory framework must be developed for ammonia to be a viable, low-carbon alternative for shipping.”

“There are many questions around the use of ammonia as a shipping fuel,” said Andy Franks, senior risk specialist at LR Maritime Decarbonisation Hub. “Studies like this support the industry’s understanding of the environmental impacts as well as the operational and safety challenges. Greater clarity about the risks posed to marine ecosystems will allow industry stakeholders to make better informed decisions on the multiple transition pathways under consideration.”

The study, which presents a first look at ammonia’s potential ecological impacts as a fuel, found that estuaries, mangroves and wetlands are particularly sensitive to potential ammonia fuel spills compared to the polar regions and the deep sea. Within these habitats, it is typically fish which are most sensitive to an ammonia spill, with birds and mammals to a lesser degree.

Further research is needed to evaluate the full range of ecological and health implications, especially to a ship’s crew, of ammonia, including the increased nitrogen deposition from chronic ammonia leakage and combustion by-products to determine its safety.

“All future fuels come with specific challenges. We have been using oil to power ships for almost a century now and we had to learn how to do so in a safe way. We can't go through the same process with ammonia,” said Marie Hubatova, director of global shipping for EDF's Global Transport team. “We have to make sure we get it right from the very beginning. A robust regulatory framework and good management practices are essential for the safe use of ammonia.”

Depending upon its safety, ammonia produced with renewable energy is already projected as one of the possible main future fuels of shipping. It is estimated that maritime shipping emits approximately 1,056 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2) per annum and is responsible for nearly 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions.

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