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International Shipping
Cold lay-ups in offing as liners face difficult options
Date:2022-11-30 Readers:
LINERS will idle as much as 1.5 million TEU next year as the container market crumbles with analysts warning images of boxships in lay-up could become commonplace again, reports Singapore's Splash 247.


British consultants Drewry are forecasting idling will reach 1.5 million TEU next year, or six per cent of the end-2022 cellular fleet.


"Carriers are going to have to engage every capacity lever they can to stop the rot," said Drewry senior manager Simon Heaney.


Meanwhile, Xeneta is predicting an idling of up to one million TEU.


"Carriers will apply the tools in toolbox available to them to dent the potentially freight rate eroding impact of a massive oversupply," said Xeneta head of research Peter Sand.


The latest count from Alphaliner shows that there is already 1.24 million TEU of inactive vessel capacity.


This equates to five per cent of the fleet, with 60 per cent of it due to drydocking, repairs, and conversions.


"The amount of commercially idle tonnage is increasing slowly but steadily. Most of these ships are carrier controlled. They are in between services or dropping out of service for one round trip, as sailings were voided," said Alphaliner shipping analyst Jan Tiedemann.


Given the huge influx of new buildings, Alphaliner expects commercial vessel idling to grow next year.


Danish consultancy Sea-Intelligence mapped out two possible scenarios for how liner shipping grapples with overcapacity in the year ahead.


The more optimistic scenario would see the volume slowdown leveling out over the coming months and carriers managing to catch up with capacity removal.


The second scenario sees volumes contracting over the coming year and/or carriers refraining from taking the necessary hard cuts to capacity, with the market overshooting the drop.


BIMCO chief shipping analyst Niels Rasmussen declared that cold lay-ups will likely reemerge with supply set to outpace demand in 2023 and a worsening global economic outlook.

https://www.shippingazette.com/menu.asp?encode=eng

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