FREIGHT rates, time charter rates, and second-ship values will be all under pressure throughout 2023 and 2024, says the Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), the big shipowners association.
This comes with BIMCO's Shipping Overview & Outlook for the first quarter of 2023 (Q1) including key highlights of container, tanker and bulk markets.
Head-haul and regional trade demand growth of 1-2 per cent in 2023 followed by 5-6 per cent in 2024 is BIMCO's best hope, reports Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.
Negative year on year growth through the first half of 2023, but return to growth thereafter is predicted.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts global GDP growth of 2.9 per cent in 2023 and 3.1 per cent in 2024 but highlights that the balance of risks remains weighted on the downside.
So far, liner operators have not been able to adjust capacity offered in line with demand and it is unclear whether the released 2023 service plans to sufficiently address this imbalance, said the report.
"While average sailing speed has decreased following the reduction in congestion there is so far no evidence of the structural shift downwards due to EEXI/CII [energy efficiency existing ship index/carbon intensity indicator] that had been previously indicated by major liner operators," said the report.
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