IMPORT cargo volume at US major container ports is climbing back from a nearly three-year low in February but is expected to remain well below last year's levels, according to the Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
"Consumers are still spending and retail sales are expected to increase this year, but we're not seeing the explosive demand we saw the past two years," said federation vice president Jonathan Gold.
Said Global Port Tracker founder Ben Hackett: "With economic uncertainty continuing, the impact on trade is clear. Our forecast now projects a larger decline in imports in the first half than we forecast last month. Our view is that imports will remain below recent levels until inflation and inventory are reduced."
Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 1.62 million TEU in March, the latest month for which final numbers are available. That was up five per cent from February - which saw the lowest levels since May 2020 - but down 30.6 per cent year on year.
Ports have not yet reported April numbers, but they are projected at 1.73 million TEU, down 23.4 per cent year on year. May is forecast at 1.83 million TEU, down 23.5 per cent from last year's 2.4 million TEU, the all-time record for the number of containers imported during a single month.
June is forecast at 1.9 million TEU, down 15.9 per cent; July at 2.01 million TEU, down 7.9 per cent; August at 2.04 million TEU, down 9.9 per cent, and September at 1.96 million TEU, down 3.4 per cent. The large year-on-year declines are skewed by unusually high volumes last year.
The first half of 2023 - previously forecast at 10.8 million TEU - is now forecast at 10.4 million TEU, down 22.8 per cent from the first half of 2022. Global Port Tracker has not yet forecast the full year, but the third quarter is expected to total six million TEU, down 7.2 per cent from the same time last year, and the first nine months of the year would total 16.5 million TEU, down 17.8 per cent year on year.
Imports for all of 2022 totalled 25.5 million TEU, down 1.2 per cent from the annual record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.
Global Port Tracker covers Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle and Tacoma on the west coast; New York/New Jersey, Port of Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami and Jacksonville on the east coast, and Houston on the Gulf Coast.
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