THE passage of a cargo ship from Ukraine to Turkey last week vindicated Kyiv's gamble that Russia would not act on threats to attack commercial shipping in the Black Sea.
But the successful gambit leaves a bigger question for Ukraine: will any other commercial vessels follow the Joseph Schulte and dare to call Russia's bluff?
The German/Chinese-owned cargo ship was the first vessel to make the journey out of Ukrainian waters since July, when Russia warned it would consider any civilian vessel leaving Ukraine's ports as military targets.
Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the ship's voyage as an "important step towards restoring the freedom of navigation in the Black Sea", reports London's Financial Times.
Last week, Kyiv announced it was seeking to set up a "humanitarian" corridor in the Black Sea allowing cargo ships to leave its ports safely. But analysts said commercial shipping, on a significant scale, was unlikely to be restored without Russia's agreement.
The Joseph Schulte's arrival in Istanbul on Friday after a two-day voyage from Odesa where it had been moored since February 2022 followed weeks of rising tensions over the shipping lanes. Ukraine issued threats to hit vessels heading to Russian ports - and targeted a Russian oil tanker in August - while Russia fired warning shots at a Turkish vessel heading for a Ukrainian port on the Danube River.
Even so, Ukraine proceeded with its experiment, confident that its onshore defence systems - with a range of about 100 nautical miles - could deter Russia's navy from mounting an assault.
While travelling through Ukrainian waters the Joseph Schulte kept within this corridor, which Ukraine calls its "zone of destruction" [for hostile Russian ships], according to Dmytro Pletenchuk, a spokesperson for Ukraine's navy. Ukrainian anti-ship rocket launchers are lined up along the coast to defend against any naval attacks within their range.
All we can do is propose what we think is the safest route to shipowners and captains," said Mr Pletenchuk. He said the Russian forces couldn't hit the Joseph Schulte because "they are very restricted". "If they come any closer we will sink them," said Mr Pletenchuk.
Despite the Joseph Schulte's successful journey, major shipping groups and exporters remain wary of travelling through the Black Sea.
"It's just getting more and more complicated," said an executive at one large grain trader, pointing to recent attacks on Odesa and a Russian port.
"It's quite scary I have to say, it's difficult to get insurance, difficult to get [shipowners] to go, nobody knows what's really happening on board those ships."
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