RENEWABLE hydrogen-derived fuels’ share of the bunker mix will reach 3% by 2030, then rising to 12% in 2040 and 19% in 2050, according to DNV.
“We forecast that the adoption of e-fuels (mainly e-methanol) in shipping will reach 480 petajoules or 3% of the shipping fuel mix in 2030, increasing to 1,800 PJ, or 12% in 2040 and 2,600 PJ 19% in 2050,” the classification society said in its energy transition outlook.
One petajoule is equal to one million billion joules, or 278 GW hours, equivalent to the energy contained in 31.6m cu m of natural gas.
DNV said shipping is set for a faster transition owing to its inclusion in the EU Emissions Trading System from 2024 and the International Maritime Organization’s new climate strategy, which aims for net zero by 2050.
The IMO has set a target for 5% uptake of zero or near zero emissions technologies by 2030, striving for 10%.
On hydrogen supply, DNV expects low-carbon pathways to account for 85% of all global hydrogen production by 2050.
Of this: 28% will come from methane reforming with carbon capture and storage, 15% from grid-connected electrolysis, 28% from dedicated solar-based electrolysis, 7% from dedicated wind-based electrolysis and 2% from dedicated nuclear-based electrolysis.
Other estimates included a higher share of renewable-hydrogen derived fuels in shipping. The International Energy Agency’s net zero scenario expected a 44% share for ammonia in the bunker mix in 2050.
The classification society said progressive policies such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU’s Fit for 55 could be boosting the energy transition. DNV expects oil demand to peak in 2025, whilst adding that the pace of the energy transition was not fast enough for a net zero energy system by 2050.
The IMO revised its greenhouse gas strategy in July. It now aims for cuts of 20% and 70% by 2030 and 2040 respectively, from 2008 levels. DNV expects oil demand to peak in 2025.
DNV Maritime chief executive Knut Orbeck-Nilssen said last month he thought it “very unlikely” that shipping could reach the IMO’s 2030 target.
The EU ETS will include shipping from next year, with a three-year phase-in period from 2024. Companies must buy allowances for 40% of emissions, gradually increasing to 75% in 2025 and 100% in 2026.
https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1146849/Renewable-hydrogenbased-fuel-share-to-reach-3-by-2030-DNV-says?vid=Maritime&processId=cfef72a3-0a1c-4cf7-9cbd-fbfe3b250bea
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