Recent data from various research organisations suggests that the current price of newbuildings is on the verge of surpassing the historic peak set in 2008. Clarksons Research's latest Newbuilding Price Index has climbed steadily by 5 per cent since the beginning of the year, and in nominal terms, current prices are approaching the 2008 peak by just 2 per cent.
Order books for liquefied natural gas (LNG) and container ships show significant growth in 2024, while at the same time orders for tankers and dry bulk carriers are unexpectedly showing signs of accelerating growth. According to MB Shipbrokers, the recorded order book stands at around 603,000 TEU to date, and if most of the current projects materialise on schedule, the Danish brokerage firm predicts that this figure will quickly climb to around 1 million TEU in the coming months.
The shipbuilding industry is gearing up to cope with this new "shipbuilding boom". According to the latest figures, the number of active shipyards worldwide has made a significant leap of 17.7 per cent in the last two years. Data from Greece's Xclusiv Shipbrokers shows that since June 2022, when there were 153 active shipyards, the number has climbed to 180 this month, with most of the growth coming from China. The activity of shipbuilders is reflecting optimistic expectations among shipbuilders for extra-long orders, while newbuilding prices have reached highs not seen in recent decades. Recent reports that container ships are expected to be delivered in 2029 and LNG vessels in 2030 underline the long-term boom in the industry.
According to shipping organisation BIMCO, the global order book for shipbuilders now stands at more than 133 million compensated gross tonnes (CGT), a staggering 56 million CGT increase from the order book at the end of 2020. The most significant order growth has been in LNG vessels and container ships, which accounted for 35 per cent and 30 per cent of the increase, respectively.
According to VesselsValue's latest analysis, the number of orders for LNG newbuildings has more than doubled compared to the same period last year. While 34 vessels were ordered in the same period last year, 78 vessels have been ordered in the first five months of 2024, a growth rate of 129 per cent.
Clarksons' data shows that shipyards have begun a gradual rebound in recent years after a decade-long decline in production. In the first quarter of this year, shipyards delivered 10.1 million cu ft, a seven-year quarterly high, and Clarksons expects shipyards to achieve a 15 per cent increase in production for the whole of 2024, to 40.6 million cu ft.
While analysts at Danish Ship Finance are optimistic about the outlook for the shipbuilding industry, they see this as a short-term boom. They expect global ship utilisation to peak in 2024, with a possible fall-off in the following two years. In a report released by the company in May, the analysts noted, "Continued strong contracting activity and limited shipyard availability are driving newbuilding prices ever closer to record highs."
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