THE first time China faced Donald Trump in the White House, there was a trade war, a breach of protocol involving Taiwan's former leader, and a president-to-president bromance that turned sour.
As President-elect Trump prepares to start his second term in office, China is bracing for unpredictability in its ties with the United States and renewed tensions over trade, technology and Taiwan, reports ABC News.
Perhaps the biggest consequence for China - if Trump stays true to his campaign promises - is his threat to slap blanket 60 per cent tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US.
Tariffs like that would be a blow to China's already unstable economy, which is suffering from high youth unemployment, a lengthy property slump and government debt.
A 60 per cent duty on Chinese imports could shave off 2.5 percentage points, or about half, of China's projected economic growth, according to an analysis published earlier this year by UBS.
During Trump's previous term in office, the US imposed tariffs on more than US$360 billion of Chinese products. That brought Beijing to the negotiating table, and in 2020 the two sides signed a trade deal in which China committed to improve intellectual property rights and buy an extra $200 billion of American goods.
A research group a couple of years later showed China had bought essentially none of the goods it had promised.
President Joe Biden retained most of those tariffs and added fresh duties this year on imports including steel, solar cells and electric vehicles.
Like last time, tariffs could serve as a tool to force Beijing back to the negotiating table, said Henry Gao, a law professor at Singapore Management University who focuses on international trade.
The US does not recognize Taiwan as a country but is its strongest backer and biggest arms provider.
Mr Trump angered Beijing in December 2016 by taking a congratulatory call from Taiwan's then-president Tsai Ing-wen in a breach of diplomatic protocol. No US president had spoken directly to a Taiwanese leader since Washington and Beijing established ties in 1979.
Mr Trump's move created anxiety in China-watching circles, but ultimately, he stuck to supporting the status quo in relations between Taipei and Beijing.
China expects him to continue to do so, said Mr Zhu Feng, dean of the School of International Relations at Nanjing University.
"Will (he) want to turn to support Taiwan independence? It is unlikely," he said.
As for China's repeated threats to annex Taiwan, Mr Trump told The Wall Street Journal last month that he would not have to use military force to prevent a blockade of Taiwan because Mr Xi "respects me and he knows I'm (expletive) crazy".
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