Alphaliner pointed out in its report that as the end of the year approaches, the level of global idle capacity remains at an extremely low level. Data shows that idle capacity has only increased by 350,000 teu in the past two weeks, mainly due to ships completing dry dock maintenance.

As of now, there are only 58 ships with a total of 200,002 TEUs in commercial idle state, accounting for only 0.6% of the world's 30 million TEU fleet, which is extremely low. Therefore, the container fleet is considered to be "full capacity" with no idle capacity.

Alphaliner expects that container demand will continue to be strong in the short term, possibly boosted by stocking up for the upcoming Spring Festival holiday. At the same time, the possible imposition of US import tariffs proposed by US President-elect Trump and the upcoming strike by US Gulf and East Coast dock workers may also exacerbate the situation. In addition, the reshuffle of shipping alliances in February 2025 is also expected to have a short-term impact on capacity supply until the market adapts to the new shipping network layout.

Clarksons believes that strong growth in demand for container trade on major routes will boost the outlook for the container fleet.

Trevor Crowe, an analyst at the company, said that other trade routes from Asia to Africa, South America, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent also showed positive development trends. Among them, the two largest mainline shipping volumes from Asia to North America and Europe were particularly high. From January to October this year, the total cargo volume of these two routes reached 34.8 million TEUs, a significant increase of 12% year-on-year; the cargo volume in August reached a monthly high of 3.9 million TEUs.

Trevor Crowe noted that container freight volume growth in 2024 is expected to be the fastest since 2010, with the exception of 2021, when freight volumes rebounded from the initial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.



https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Q8k_5RbKo47dOZzN523Jfg