A pause in Houthi attacks on merchant vessels has raised hopes for a large-scale return of container shipping through the Red Sea and Suez Canal, reports New York's FreightWaves.
The Yemeni insurgents, who have occupied the capital for a decade and control 40 per cent of the country, announced the stand down in a letter to Hamas. The move follows a Gaza ceasefire and comes as Suez Canal tolls have plunged up to 60 per cent due to diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.
Analysts warn carriers and insurers need more assurances before resuming full operations. Peter Sand of Xeneta said safety cannot rely on the word of the Houthis. CMA CGM has continued limited services in the Red Sea, with two of its largest ships transiting the route this month.
Xeneta estimates diversions around Africa absorb about two million TEU of global capacity. A full return to the Red Sea could ease supply chain stress but also flood the market with capacity, driving freight rates lower unless carriers idle, scrap or blank sailings.
Luuk de Gruijter of APM Terminals said carriers face a dilemma between accepting risks or losing market share. Insurers are expected to keep premiums high until multiple safe transits confirm stability. Maersk chief executive Vincent Clerc said the ceasefire must be entrenched before resuming passages.
Spot rates from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and US East Coast are down more than 50 per cent this year. Mr Sand warned carriers are heading into loss-making territory, with global freight rates forecast to fall up to 25 per cent in 2026.
Shippers are urged to prepare contingency plans, as a large-scale return to the Red Sea would cause seismic disruption across global supply chains.
https://www.shippingazette.com/news?news_id=9251100000476
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