Ocean carriers are expected to make only a gradual return to the Suez Canal despite Houthi militia announcing an end to attacks, reports London's Air Cargo News.

Since 2024, container lines have diverted around Africa, extending Asia-Europe transit times by weeks and boosting air cargo demand. Analysts warn that a return to the canal could shift volumes back to ocean shipping, hitting air freight growth.

Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said crew safety and insurance concerns remain paramount. He noted carriers need more assurance than militia statements, with some ships testing the route but overall transits trending down in 2025.

Mr Sand cautioned that a large-scale return could flood the market with capacity, driving freight rates lower. Spot rates from Asia to Europe, the Mediterranean and US East Coast are already down more than 50 per cent this year.

Carriers are entering loss-making territory, with global freight rates forecast to fall up to 25 per cent in 2026 even without changes in the Red Sea. A sudden return to Suez could trigger severe disruption as lines cancel sailings or slow ships.

Shippers are advised to prepare contingency plans. Mr Sand said the impact of a large-scale return would be "seismic" for supply chains. At the TIACA Air Cargo Forum, consultant Ryan Keyrouse warned improved ocean reliability could prompt a shift away from air cargo.

https://www.shippingazette.com/news?news_id=9251100000777