On December 16, 2010, the “2011 Economy, Trade and Shipping Market Outlook Forum”, organized by China Ocean Shipping Intelligence Network and co-organized by Shanghai International Shipping Institute (SISI), was successfully held in New Century Hotel Shanghai. On behalf of Vice Minister Song Dexing of the Ministry of Transport, Director Wang Mingzhi of the Commission Office of Shanghai Combination Port attended the Forum and made a keynote speech. Altogether 120 representatives from China Ocean Shipping Intelligence Network and other organizations participated in the Forum.

At the “2011 Economy, Trade and Shipping Market Outlook Forum”

Professor Huang Youfang, Head of China Ocean Shipping Intelligence Network and Vice President of Shanghai Maritime University, and Professor Zhen Hong, Secretary-General of Shanghai International Shipping Institute (SISI), attended the Forum and made opening speeches. Mr. Huang Youfang said that China Ocean Shipping Intelligence Network has been unanimously recognized by all member units by virtue of quality and unique professional services. With the expansion in its scale and influence, the annual forum has become an important platform for industry professionals to exchange with each other. In the future, China Ocean Shipping Intelligence Network will continue to preserve and expand its features, and provide its members with more professional services.

Professor Huang Youfang, Head of China Ocean Shipping Intelligence Network and Vice President of Shanghai Maritime University, made an opening speech

Professor Zhen Hong, Secretary-General of SISI, made an opening speech

At the Forum, Director Wang Mingzhi of the Commission Office of Shanghai Combination Port, SISI Deputy Secretary-General Li Gang, Manager Gu Yunfeng of the Information Department of Shanghai Shipping Exchange, and Director Chen Fengying of World Economic Institute of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations unveiled 2010 reviews and 2011 outlooks, focusing respectively on China shipping industry development, international dry bulk shipping market, coastal water transport development and global economic development. They also exchanged with participants on the hot issues.

In the keynote speech entitled “2011 Outlook for China’s Shipping Industry”, Mr. Wang Mingzhi pointed out that China has made two major achievements in the development of water transport, namely, the establishment of ocean, coastal and inland water transport system and the formation of modern ports and support system framework. China is enjoying an increased influence and a significantly uplifted position in water transport. Looking to the future development, China will focus on the development of national economy. China’s rapid economic development and the transfer of world-class shipping centers to China will remain unchanged, with the uneven development of water transport industry still existing. Mr. Wang Mingzhi described the deep-seated problems from the perspective of structure, mode, system and mechanism. He also analyzed the future development of global ships, domestic ships and ports, putting forward six adjustment directions, including the optimization of port layout, vigorous development of inland water transport, rapid development of modern shipping services, and construction of integrated transport system, etc.

Director Wang Mingzhi of the Commission Office of Shanghai Combination Port made a keynote speech

In the keynote speech entitled “2010 Review and 2011 Outlook for International Dry Bulk Shipping Market”, SISI Secretary-General Li Gang said that the world’s dry bulk shipping market has stepped out of the shadow of economic crisis, with an increase in shipping volume found among major cargoes. Looking to the world’s economic situation in 2011, despite of a slowdown in global economic growth and the still existing negative factors, the positive impacts brought by growing demand will be greatly outweigh the negative effects of trade protectionism and international oil price hike, etc. Moreover, the economic growth in emerging economies and developing countries will significantly trigger shipping needs. In 2011, iron ore, coal, grain and other major bulk cargoes will maintain their growth momentum, and the “China factor” will still play a leading role in the short term. The total fleet capacity will maintain a rapid growth, with even more obvious trend of using larger and new ships, so as to inhibit the rise in freight rates. Mr. Li Gang also analyzed the future development of dry bulk market from shipping demand, international oil prices, ship orders, international speculative capital, and iron ore giants.

In the keynote speech entitled “2010 Review and 2011 Outlook for Coastal Water Transport”, Manager Gu Yunfeng of the Information Department of Shanghai Shipping Exchange stated that China’s waterborne throughput has increased substantially as compared with 2009. Affected by the industry transferring to central and western regions, the growth of domestic trade volume is more promising than that of foreign trade. The coastal shipping market for coal, iron ore, crude oil, container and other major cargoes achieved steady growth. With the expected stable growth of China’s macro economy in 2011, the development of major coastal waterborne cargoes will allow optimism with a note of caution. However, due to the rapid growth in shipping capacity and shipper fleets, more uncertainties will still exist for the development of coastal water transport market in 2011. Ms. Gu Yunfeng also mentioned that, as for special goods, the liquefied petroleum and gas shipping markets have become new focuses, but shipping enterprises or investors shall remain cautious before entering into the markets as there are already substantial overcapacities.

In the keynote speech entitled “2011World Economic Situation and Prospects”, Director Chen Fengying of World Economic Institute of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations said that the global economy achieved an uneven but robust recovery in 2010, better than expected. In the future, the global economy will enter into a stage featuring seemingly strong recovery and actual vulnerability and uncertainty. Emerging economies will show a more obvious group rise, driving international forces to accelerate their shift from developed markets to emerging ones, with Asian position being highlighted. As for China’s economic development, Ms. Chen Fengying noted that, in the post-crisis era, China’s economy will first present strong recovery, becoming a true powerhouse for global economy. In the next several years, China’s economy will continue its sound development. Over the long period in the future, special attention shall be given to the stability during economic and social transformation, the external gaming and containment amidst rapid economic rise, the sustainability of economic development, and the threat of institutional corruption to the stability of the regime.

On the next day, Deputy Manager Chen Jing of Strategic Planning Department of COSCO Container Liners Co., Ltd. and Analyst Zhang Yongfeng of SISI Market Analysis Department presented analysis and outlook for the international container shipping market and international tanker shipping market, respectively.
The Forum was successfully concluded with good comments from participants. After the Forum was rounded off, industry professionals conducted active exchanges, revealing a better understanding on the development of global economy, trade and shipping in 2011. The Forum provided good opportunities for member units for mutual exchange and learning.