On December 29, 2009, SISI released four major indices for the first time, including China Shipping Prosperity Index (CSPI), China Shipping Confidence Index (CSFI), China Shipping Prosperity Alertness Index (CSAI) and China Shipping Prosperity Composite Index (CSCI), announcing an end to the lengthy stage of Chinese shipping industry without any prosperity monitoring and alert system.

After the long-term tracking of any changes in the shipping market, and based on comparisons of researches and practical applications of the prosperity indices in China and foreign countries, SISI has established a set of prosperity monitoring index system that can reflect the actual development of China's shipping industry at multiple levels and from multiple perspectives. The system includes China Shipping Prosperity Index (CSPI), China Shipping Confidence Index (CSFI), China Shipping Prosperity Alertness Index (CSAI) and China Shipping Prosperity Composite Index (CSCI).

By selecting a representative collection of shipping enterprises, SISI has established a regular liaison system for CSPI and CSFI. SISI begins investigations at the middle to end of each quarter, analyzing the qualitative problems of operating performance of shipping enterprises by quantitative calculation to conclude the values of the shipping market prosperity and development trends. The quarterly released indices reflect the development of China's shipping industry from a micro perspective of enterprises, suitable for short-term forecasts.

According to SISI's Q4 China Shipping Prosperity Report, CSPI reached a thriving level of 103.58 points in the fourth quarter. In Q4, 31.63% of shipping enterprises were optimistic about their production and operation performances; while 35% of port enterprises and shipping transport enterprises deemed their production and operation in good condition. According to the survey, the production and operation performances of shipping enterprises in 1Q10 will decrease slightly by 0.8 points to 102.78 points from 4Q09 level, remaining in the thriving interval. Among surveyed shipping enterprises, 26.36% believed in a better trend in operation performances in the next quarter; while 55% thought it would just be ordinary.

The CSFI for the fourth quarter registered 91.90 points, revealing a depressing outlook. Among all sub-indices of CSFI, port enterprises reached the highest and thriving level of 103.12 points; shipping transport enterprises reached the lowest and fairly depressing level of 80.42 points. Among surveyed shipping entrepreneurs, only 16% recognized a sound development of China's shipping industry, 58% deemed it ordinary, and 26% found it in poor condition. In addition, 32% of the shipping transport entrepreneurs held that the current development of China's shipping industry is extremely poor; while 90% of port entrepreneurs considered it ordinary.

According to the results, Chinese shipping entrepreneurs forecasted a 1Q10 CSFI of 99.12 points, advancing by 7.22 points from 4Q09, hopefully leaping into the thriving interval. 26% of the shipping entrepreneurs were optimistic about the development trends of China's shipping industry in the next quarter, while 50% thought it would just be ordinary; 31% of the shipping transport enterprises believed in a worsening trend in China's shipping industry in the next quarter, while 25% believed in an upturn. Port entrepreneurs were comparatively optimistic, with only 10% voting for a worsening trend, and 30% for an upward trend.
CSAI and CSCI serve as a "barometer" or "alarm" in monitoring and pre-warning related variables. Firstly, the shipping industry itself is objectively subject to cyclical fluctuations. Secondly, in the process of fluctuations, problems existing in the operation of China's shipping industry may be exposed or reflected earlier by some indicators. The monthly released CSAI and CSCI are used to analyze and indicate the prosperity trends through time differences among variables of China's shipping industry.

The CSAI for October 2009 released by SISI revealed related indicators during the recent 12 months (see Fig. 1).

Fig. 1 Grading of the CSAI by Colored Lights from November 2008 to October 2009

The CSAI for October increased by 5.89 points to 93.26 points as compared with September, having stayed in the green-light interval for two consecutive months. In October, three indicators (BDTI, CCFI and import-export volume) stayed in the blue-light interval, two (CCBFI and consumer goods retail) in the green-light interval, three (BDI, fixed-asset investment and port throughput) in the yellow-light interval, and one (energy output) in the red-light interval.

As revealed by the CSAI Diagram, China's shipping industry declined sharply from the yellow-light to blue-light interval within a short period since July 2008, reflecting the general prosperity of the industry.

According to CSCI released by SISI, after a rise for two consecutive months, leading indicators escalated to 103.679 points in October 2009 and has picked up another 0.337 points this month. Since January 2009, leading indicators had been moving upwards in spite of occasional stagnation and adjustments, triggering a rise in coincident indicators which saw a rally of 0.98 points from the previous-month-level to 99.325 points in October 2009. Lagging indicators had bottomed out and slowly risen since July 2009. As shown in the diagram below, China's shipping industry had bottomed out with a slow rise amidst slight fluctuations (see Fig. 3).

The release of CSPI will help China's shipping enterprises achieve healthy development and cope with the financial crisis. In addition, as a part of Shanghai International Shipping Center, the CSPI will provide powerful supports for the development of the soft environment of the center.

CSPI and CSFI are released quarterly; CSAI and CSCI are released monthly. For more information, please visit the website of SISI.