Asia and the Pacific region remains the engine of the global economy.
It continues to power trade, investment and jobs the world over.
Two-thirds of the region's economies grew faster in 2017 than the
previous year, and the trend is expected to continue in 2018. The
region's challenge is now to ensure this growth is robust, sustainable
and mobilized to provide more financing for development. It is certainly
an opportunity to accelerate progress toward achieving the 2030 Agenda
for Sustainable Development.
Recent figures estimate economic growth across the region at 5.8
percent in 2017 compared with 5.4 percent in 2016. This reflects growing
dynamism amid relatively favorable global economic conditions,
underpinned by a revival of demand and steady inflation. Robust domestic
consumption and recovering investment and trade all contributed to the
2017 growth trajectory and underpin a stable outlook.
Risks and challenges nevertheless remain. Rising private and
corporate debt, particularly in China and countries in Southeast Asia,
low or declining foreign exchange reserves in a few South Asian
economies, and trends in oil prices are among the chief concerns. Policy
simulation for 18 countries suggests a $10 rise in the price of oil per
barrel could dampen GDP growth by 0.14 to 0.4 percent, widen external
current account deficits by 0.5 to 1.0 percentage points and build
inflationary pressures in oil-importing economies. Oil exporters,
however, would see a positive impact.
Trade protectionism threatens growth
These challenges come against the backdrop of looming trade
protectionism. Inward-looking trade policies will create uncertainty and
would entail widespread risks to the region's exports and their
backbone industries and labor markets. While prospects for the least
developed countries in the region are close to 7 percent, concerns
persist given their inherent vulnerabilities to terms-of-trade shocks or
exposure to natural disasters.
The key questions are: How we can collectively take advantage of the
solid pace of economic expansion to facilitate and improve the long-term
prospects of economies and mobilize finance for development as well as
whether multilateral institutions, such as the World Trade Organization
membership can resolve the global gridlock on international trade?
Economic and financial stability along with liberal trade access to
international markets will be critical for effective pursuit of the 2030
Agenda for Sustainable Development. Regional economies, whose tax
potential remains untapped, now need to improve domestic resource
mobilization and prudently manage fiscal affairs. Unleashing their
financial resource potential needs to be accompanied by renewed efforts
to leverage private capital and deploy innovative financing mechanisms.
The investment requirements to make economies resilient, inclusive
and sustainable are sizeable-as high as $2.5 trillion per year on
average for all developing countries worldwide. In the Asia-Pacific
region, investment requirements are also substantial but so are
potential resources. The combined value of international reserves,
market capitalization of listed companies, and assets held by financial
institutions, insurance companies and various funds is estimated at some
$56 trillion. Effectively channeling these resources to finance
sustainable development is a key challenge for the region.
The need to come up with supplementary financial resources will
remain. Public finances are frequently undermined by a narrow tax base,
distorted taxation structures, weak tax administrations and ineffective
public expenditure management. This has created problems of balanced
fiscalization of sustainable development, even if the national planning
organizations have embraced and integrated sustainable development
agenda in their forward looking plans.
Better regulations will boost growth
Despite a vibrant business sector, the lack of enabling policies,
legal and regulatory frameworks, and large informal sectors, have
deterred sustainability and its appropriate financing. The external
assistance from which some countries benefit is insufficient to meet
sustainable development investment requirements, a problem often
compounded by low inbound foreign direct investment. Capital markets in
many countries are underdeveloped and bond markets are still in their
infancy. Fiscal pre-emption of banking resources is quite common. For
those emerging countries which have successfully tapped international
capital markets, a tightening of global financial conditions means
borrowing costs are on the rise.
The ESCAP flagship report, Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the
Pacific 2018, issued on Wednesday, calls for stronger political will
and governments strengthening tax administrations and expanding the tax
base. If the quality of the tax policy and administrations in
Asia-Pacific economies matches developed economies', the incremental
revenue impact could be as high as 3 to 4 percent of GDP in major
economies, such as China, India and Indonesia, and steeper in developing
countries. Broadening the tax base by rationalizing tax incentives for
foreign direct investment and introducing a carbon tax could generate
almost $60 billion in additional tax revenue per year.
But government action must be complemented by the private sector to
effectively pursue sustainable development. The right policy environment
could encourage private investment by institutional investors in
long-term infrastructure projects. Structural reforms should focus on
developing enabling policy environment and institutional setting
designed to facilitate public-private partnerships, stable macroeconomic
conditions, relatively developed financial markets, and responsive
legal and regulatory frameworks.
Finally, while much of the success in mobilizing development finance
will depend on the design of national policies, regional cooperation is
vital. Coordinated policy actions are needed to reduce tax incentives
for foreign direct investment and to introduce a carbon tax. For many
least developed countries, the role of external sources of finance
remains critical. In many cases, the success of resource mobilization
strategies in one country is conditional on closer regional cooperation.
ESCAP remains engaged and its analysis can support the planning and
cooperation needed to effectively mobilize finance for sustained,
inclusive and sustainable economic growth.
http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201805/21/WS5b020a73a3103f6866ee97fc.html
|