SCRUBBERS look like cost-saving winners for the moment as IMO 2020 takes effect this week among the choices of compliant fuel available,
reports Colchester's Seatrade Maritime News.
The global 0.5 per cent low sulphur cap for marine fuel, or IMO 2020
finds most owners complying with very low sulphur fuel oils (VLFSO) or
gas oil.
"Out of the total merchant fleet, about
one per cent is powered by LNG. In addition, several thousand vessels
worldwide have had scrubbers installed (and installations are expected
to continue well into 2020," brokers Poten & Partners commented in their weekly report.
Many larger owners have locked in compliant fuel stocks to reduce their
exposure to a potentially volatile market pricewise for such fuels.
While major shortages of compliant fuel do not appear to be expected
those buying without contracts could find themselves paying high prices.
"However, in the short term, disruptions are likely and current pricing
signals indicate that if a shipowner needs to buy compliant fuel on the
spot market, he will need to pay premium prices," said the Poten note.
Meanwhile falling high sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) prices mean a widening
fuel spread which is set to benefit owners who have gambled investment
millions in installing scrubbers on their vessels.
"That IMO 2020 is already well underway can be seen from recent
movements in bunker prices and using MSI's latest forecasts at current
price spread levels, we expect substantial premia on scrubber-fitted
vessel earnings next year," said Adam Kent, managing director of
Maritime Strategies International (MSI).
"So far price dynamics are adhering to our view that there won't be a
huge price spike in low-sulphur fuel, but rather the spread will be
driven by falling HSFO prices."
Although MSI put the price between HSFO and VLSFO at around $200 per
tonne, significantly lower than a near $300 spread per tonne quoted by
Poten for Rotterdam, these level will still give handsome returns for
owners.
A 13,000-TEUer, consuming 100 tonnes of fuel per day would saved $17,400
per day at $200 tonne price differential, and $26,000 per day savings
at $300 per tonne average across a year.
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