The threat of a strike by dockworkers at US East and Gulf Coast ports on 1 October has the potential to cause supply chain disruptions until 2025, according to recent research from Copenhagen.
Contract negotiations between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and port operators have failed. The current contract, which expires on 30 September, covers six of the 10 busiest ports in the US and involves around 45,000 dockworkers.
A one-week work stoppage could take four to six weeks to recover. The International Longshoremen's Association posted a video on its Facebook page showing a dragon engulfing a container ship and showing the union president standing in front of a banner that reads ‘Prepare for war’.The ILA is demanding a 76 per cent pay rise.
Danish shipping company Maersk warned in its advisory report to clients that in the event of a total work stoppage, it could take four to six weeks to recover from even a one-week shutdown, leading to the accumulation of large backlogs and delays.
Experts at Danish container shipping analyst firm Sea-Intelligence suggest that for every day of strike, it could take at least four to five days to ‘clean up’ and get back to normal, with Sea-Intelligence suggesting that a one-week strike on 1 October could lead to serious congestion problems by mid-November; while a one-week strike on 1 October could lead to serious congestion problems by mid-November; and a one-week strike on 1 October could lead to serious congestion problems by mid-November. serious congestion problems; and a two-week strike would mean the port would not return to normal operations until 2025.
The ILA plans to hold an internal meeting on 4 and 5 September to assess contractual requirements and to guide local union organisations on strike strategies.
Lars Jensen, principal of container consulting firm Vespucci Maritime, noted in a recent LinkedIn post that any strike would ultimately hurt U.S. consumers.
Jensen wrote: ‘Severe congestion problems will lead to capacity shortages, which, as we have seen over the last four years, will lead to higher freight rates and improve the profitability of container lines.’
Last June, 29 ports on the US West Coast finalised a six-year labour contract agreement, ending a chaotic 13-month period of stalled negotiations, strikes and outbound cargo.
https://www.cnss.com.cn/html/gkdt/20240815/354341.html
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