Shippingworld.com, DNV says that uncertainty in the European shipping industry is pushing up newbuilding prices. One of the key challenges facing shipowners today is how to meet decarbonisation targets and renew fleet sizes as newbuilding prices gradually rise back to record highs.
Speaking at SMM Hamburg, Rasmus Stute, DNV's Regional Manager for Germany, said that many shipowners are now caught in a strategic ‘trap’, where they have waited too long and missed out on the best opportunities to renew their fleets at the current high prices. Scarcity of shipbuilding capacity, labour shortages and uncertainty over the future of fuel use are all contributing to the rise in newbuilding prices. The labour shortage is also reflected in the low availability of skilled labour, as the use of new fuels (methanol or ammonia) requires staff to obtain additional certifications, he stressed.
Rasmus Stut added that the shipping industry's decarbonisation goals cannot be achieved by building new ships alone. Because only 10 per cent of new ships can be built at a given time, 90 per cent of the existing fleet can only be retrofitted to meet decarbonisation targets. At this point in time, the possibility of renewing all ship engines is not high, and energy-saving technologies for ships are the focus of future efforts.
In terms of the German shipping industry and its role in the energy transition, the German shipping cluster consists of strong ‘hardware’ and ‘software’. On the one hand, Germany has a strong supplier base with a lot of technological leadership in component manufacturers; on the other hand, the country has a wealth of human resources, with more than 2,300 ships managed by German ship managers and owners.
Rasmus Stut points out that the majority of shipping companies in Germany are medium-sized enterprises that have found a niche to fit into and are able to secure their position in the market. The ‘combination of knowledge and technology’ is the key to the future success of German and European shipping companies. It is learnt that most of these companies have chosen to invest in shipbuilding in Chinese shipyards.
On the cost of decarbonisation, Rasmus Stut argued that there needs to be a level playing field for all market players, and that the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) needs to set rules on ship emissions globally, ‘otherwise it could be to the detriment of one or the other of the market players’.
He also proposed a pricing mechanism that would impose fines on those who emit more carbon dioxide, with the fines paid being allocated to entrepreneurs who have used greener fuels. ‘In this scenario, businesses that push for decarbonisation would receive some form of rebate, while those that emit CO2 would pay a price. Overall, transport costs would also get higher and consumers would have to pay for it, but it would all be worth it.’
There are currently a variety of predictions circulating on the market for possible future marine fuels, focussing on LNG, methanol, hydrogen (blue ammonia and electro-ammonia) and biofuels (biodiesel, renewable diesel and liquefied biomethane). For Rasmus Stute, ammonia fuels, which do not produce carbon dioxide when burned, will play a further important role in the future, but ammonia fuels still require a specific method of storage, which, although technically feasible, is costly. If the International Maritime Organisation imposes a carbon tax on marine fuels in the future, ammonia will remain one of the best options for future marine fuels.
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