Container shipping faces structural service challenges as spot freight rates are forecast to drop sharply, reported London's S&P Global.

JP Morgan projects rates will fall 40 per cent year over year in 2026 and another 20 per cent in 2027, with carriers expected to suffer steep losses amid oversupply and slowing demand.

While shippers may benefit from lower prices, service reliability is deteriorating. Risks from blank sailings, cargo rollings and geopolitical shocks have prompted Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd to form an alliance focused on reliability.

Analysts warn that service pressures are structural, not cyclical. Geopolitical disruptions, climate impacts such as Panama Canal drought, and lingering Covid-era congestion have created systemic stress in supply chains.

The World Bank's Global Supply Chain Stress Index is nearing pandemic levels, reflecting longer voyages, slower steaming and port delays. Berth productivity has not recovered since Covid, with North Europe facing labour disputes and infrastructure limits.

Larger ships of 20,000 to 24,000 TEU now require more time in port, worsening congestion. Consultant Steve Rothberg said terminals often lack sufficient cranes, keeping vessels at berth longer and delaying others.

Carriers are also managing capacity aggressively, using idling, blank sailings and slow steaming. This absorbs excess supply but undermines service quality, forcing shippers to hold more inventory despite lower freight costs.

https://www.shippingazette.com/news?news_id=9251200001082