Import cargo volumes at the US' major retail container ports are beginning to see 'cautious increases' over last year; ending a summer-long downturn as retailers prepare for the holiday season, according to the monthly Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

    'With the most crucial spending period of the year just weeks away, retailers have made careful decisions on the amount of merchandise they need to properly stock their stores during the holidays,' NRF vp for supply chain and customs policy Jonathan Gold said. 'This year, retailers have the luxury of importing holiday goods later than last year, which better ensures their inventory levels will accurately meet consumer demand.'

    US ports followed by Global Port Tracker handled 1.32 million TEU in July, the latest month for which numbers are available. That was up 6% from June but down 4% from July 2010. July was the second month in a row to show a year-over-year decline, and August was flat compared with last year, at an estimated 1.42 million TEU.

    However, NRF's statement noted: 'Rather than indicating an economic downturn, however, the numbers are a skewed comparison against higher-than-normal numbers last summer, when fears of shortages in shipping capacity caused many retailers to bring holiday merchandise into the country earlier than usual. Global Port Tracker counts only the number of cargo containers imported, not the value of their contents, so cargo volume does not directly correlate with retail sales.'

    The organisation said that year-over-year growth began to resume in September, which is forecast to be up 11.8% from September 2010 at 1.5 million TEU. October is forecast at 1.48 million TEU, up 9.5%; November at 1.33 million TEU, up 8%; and December at 1.2 million TEU, up 4.5%. January 2012 is estimated to reach 1.19 million TEU, down 1% from January 2011.

    The total for 2011 is forecast at 15.4 million TEU, up 4.3% from 2010. Imports during 2010 totaled 14.7 million TEU, a 16% increase over 'unusually low numbers' in 2009.

    Given the seasonal nature of cargo volume and continuing uncertainties about the economy, Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett was cautious about cargo volume in 2012.

    'We should not be lulled into too much confidence by the relatively strong import volumes of August and September. These are linked to the low levels of inventory that needed to be raised to meet the return-to-school and post-Thanksgiving sales. The third quarter will be positive for the ocean carriers and retailers but that will turn into negative growth for the next two to three quarters thereafter.'

    Despite this more positive news - rates are still sliding on the US' major tradelane, the transpacific. According to the Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), the freight rate per FEU travelling from Shanghai to US West Coast fell by 2.5% last week compared to the previous seven days, to USD1,675. The price per FEU travelling to the US West Coast dropped by 2.3%.

(source:ci-online)