BOEING forecasts a US$4 trillion market of 3,500 new passenger aircraft and freighters over the next 20 years with a significant increase in expected deliveries in its Boeing 2011 Current Market Outlook (CMO).

    Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets will lead to a more balanced aircraft demand worldwide. China, which has experienced double-digit growth in gross domestic product in recent years, is forecast to grow at seven per cent per annum, while South Asia, which includes India, is expected to grow at 7.1 per cent.

    Asia Pacific is forecast to need the most new aircraft at a value of deliveries of more than $1.5 trillion in 11,450 deliveries. The region will account for more than a third of new deliveries worldwide, while the Middle East (2,520) and Latin America (2,570) will also continue to show very strong growth.

    "The world market has recovered and is now expanding at a significant rate," said Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing, commercial airplanes. "Not only is there a strong demand for air travel and new airplanes today, but the fundamental drivers of air travel - including economic growth, world trade and liberalisation - all point to a healthy long-term demand."

    The global freighter fleet will nearly double to 3,500 aircraft with 970 new-production freighters (market value of $250 billion) and 1,990 aircraft converted from passenger models. Large (more than 88.2 tons capacity/80 tonnes) freighters will account for 690 new-build aircraft. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons/40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 280 aircraft. No new standard-body freighters (49.6 tons / less than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,240 standard-body conversions. On average over the next 20 years, air cargo traffic will grow at a rate of 5.6 per cent.

    The current industry backlog of more than 2,000 twin-aisle aircraft shows the strength of this market segment. The continued growth in long-haul connections will fuel the need for new twin-aisle airplanes due to the increase in new non-stop markets.

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